Fueling joy: Petrol and diesel price cuts set to turbocharge Easter road trips

Figures at the end of week three in March show that the decent decrease in fuel prices is holding steady. The petrol price is expected to drop by close to R1 per litre in April, which will also help moderate inflation.

With little over a week left in the month for any changes, Mzansi motorists will most likely be able to stretch their Easter holiday miles thanks to a large fuel price over-recovery in both the price of petrol and diesel.

Fuel prices so far in 2025…

In January and February, the petrol price increased by around 12 cents and 82 cents per litre respectively.

Earlier this month, however, petrol prices dropped by 7c per litre, while wholesale diesel prices decreased by between 17.5c and 23.5c per litre to provide some marginal relief.

April fuel price: Expected changes in petrol and diesel

The latest fuel snapshot from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows petrol prices are sitting with a comfortable over-recovery in the region of between 80 and 95 cents per litre.

• Petrol 93: Decrease of 80 cents per litre;
• Petrol 95: Decrease of 95 cents per litre;
• Diesel 500ppm: Decrease of 92 cents per litre;
• Diesel 50ppm: Decrease of 94 cents per litre.

Should these predictions materialise, the price of 95 Unleaded will drop to around R20.60 at the coast and R21.40 inland, where 93 should land around the R21.25 mark.

What affects fuel prices?

Fuel prices at the pump are influenced by a mix of global and local factors.

The main driver is the wholesale price – what retailers pay for fuel before it reaches consumers. This price changes based on elements such as crude oil prices, the rand’s strength against the dollar, distribution costs, and taxes.

Rand/dollar and global oil prices

A stronger rand and much lower oil prices drive the positive fuel recovery trend for South African consumers.

 The rand’s slightly stronger footing against the American greenback – supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts – contributes about seven cents to the over-recoveries on petrol and diesel.

Our local currency, which started February above R19/$, has been trading around R18,06/$ this week.

Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop told Daily Investor that despite the widening fissure in South Africa’s political relationship with the United States, the rand has not been affected due to the increased possibility of US interest rate cuts, which has weakened the dollar.

‘The Trump effect’

The main driver for the projected significant price reduction in fuel prices has been the drop in global oil prices, which fell from above $80 per barrel in mid-January to just under $70.

Over the past week, the average oil price has been around $69 per barrel, the lowest sustained price since August 2021.

According to various reports, the drop in oil prices is driven by increased US tariffs on Chinese goods, steel, and aluminium and concerns over global economic growth with US President Donald Trump stirring the pot.

Official fuel price: Who has the last say?

With the latest numbers viewed as an indicator or “snapshot” for pricing next month, the Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum would make adjustments (to the pricing) based on a review of the full period.

While fuel prices are largely determined by the rand/dollar exchange rate and international oil prices, the National Treasury’s inclusion of levies in the overall price also heavily affects consumers’ retail costs.

However, even with the three cents per litre increase in April to the carbon fuel tax levy – raising it to 14c/litre for petrol and 17c/litre for diesel – a big cut in fuel prices is still on the cards.

⛽The final petrol and diesel price adjustments for April will be confirmed at the start of the month, with the new prices taking effect on Wednesday, 2 April.

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